Chris Phillibert: "Dominant groups protecting themselves from changing tides" (6)

If a group has a majority share of power, a rational move from the perspective of an observer would be for that group to use its power to make sure that they are able to keep the power they have and maintain relevancy in society no matter how much it changes. This action is how I define "an anticipatory strategy adopted by dominant groups which are threatened with marginalization or exclusion from an emerging nationally-imagined community." With the resignation of Pope Benedict xvi, an event in the Catholic church not seen for centuries, I believe there is the beginning of the Catholic church adopting an anticipatory strategy to combat the threat of the marginalization of their group. Recent statistics researched by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life find that "While those Americans who are unaffiliated with any particular religion have seen the greatest growth in numbers as a result of changes in affiliation, Catholicism has experienced the greatest net losses as a result of affiliation changes. While nearly one-in-three Americans (31%) were raised in the Catholic faith, today fewer than one-in-four (24%) describe themselves as Catholic." With this dramatic decrease in membership to the Catholic church, many Catholic leaders most likely see the election of a new Pope as an avenue to pursue anticipatory strategy against marginalization.

While the raw data doesn't offer an explanation for events, I speculate that many who have left the Catholic faith in America see it as outdated. Catholic principles have long been associated with conservatism and traditional values. In the film "Amigo", we see another way the Catholic Church asserts itself as an authority in various societies. Before the Americans came into the Filipino village, the Catholic priest was locked up and not even on the social ladder. After the Americans come into the village and the priest is freed, he clings to hegemonic American authority in the village as an interpreter. This action by the priest represents the Catholic faith clinging to hegemonic authorities in various societies to push their doctrine by extension. This applies to modern-day America because Catholic values often are represented in conservative social doctrine in government. This is the Catholic church asserting its own authority by extension of the powerful if not quite hegemonic conservative base of American politics.  In a changing America, especially one put off by the ideas of extremism expressed by some political conservatives in government, a Pope that is unyielding and closed-minded in the enforcement of Catholic doctrine and ideas would most likely be disastrous for membership of the Catholic church in America. The Catholic church would be more likely to avoid rapid marginalization in America if the Cardinals elected a more liberal Pope who acknowledges the more liberal mindset of America at the moment. The Pope might also need to be more liberal with regard to secrecy and accountability in the church as well. Especially in the recent international string of scandals in the Catholic church with regard to priests raping and sexually violating little boys, the new Pope might do well to show the world that the Catholic church is not a hypocrite and holds accountable those who commit these horrible crimes. While not all of these things may happen right away or at all, all of these things are anticipatory strategies that the Catholic church can consider if it hopes to maintain relevancy and influence in the United States.

I think the key factor in determining whether or not groups will survive marginalization is awareness of the situation. If the potentially marginalized group is well aware of the changes underway in the United States and explores all their options in avoiding marginalization and then rationally choose a course of action, they are more likely to avoid marginalization. However, if this group deceives themselves in order to appease their leaders, ignores cries from followers for reform, and doesn't solve conflict or scandal within its organization, then that group will almost definitely experience marginalization and eventually irrelevancy from a society in which they were once a prominent entity.